Getting ready for the end of the month

Well, the end of the month has been good to me. The weekend was pretty much a wash. I didn't play Friday or Saturday so I could get in some good family time and celebrate my Fiance's B-day, and by the time I got to my Sunday session I was to tired to think. I dropped down to 10NL and wound up winning a buy in. It was actually kind of fun, as I was monkeying around with some things.

Last night was another good session. I wound up winning just over 2 buy ins and playing some very good poker. I missed a couple of folds and a couple of value bets, but overall it was one of my better session. I played a couple of hundred hands more than I normally do, as I am in a prop bet next month for 31K hands. It shouldn't take more time than I play now, but I will have to be more disciplined next month. No more taking an hour to play tourneys or mess with PLO. Still, it's good for disipline. I decided that since I am going for a little more volume, I will try for the iron bonus this month as well. I'm not overly concerned about it, but might as well get that extra $25 bucks!

Finally some run good!

Well, the last couple of days have been pretty good for me. I know from my posts it probably sounds like I always run bad, but you have to recognize the run good to or go insane.

Yesterday was an meh session as far as my actaul winnings go, but a really good moral boost. It started out pretty solid as I was up a buy in and a half on a couple of really good river calls, but then it went down hill. I wound up paying off 3 sets. I could have gotten away from 2 of them, but I didn't, and Bam, down 2 buy ins. This put my in full blown FU mode, but not the tilt monkey pay off version. I wound up really tightening it down and finished the session up half a buy in. It felt like a major victory coming out a winner when you get stacked 3 times in 1000 hands and still come out up, especially when you don't stack anyone.

Last night, however, was a dream. I played out of my mind good in value town. I did spew some in calling some bets (I finished the session with a went to show down of 28%), but I was getting so much value with my winners it didn't matter. I'm not talking about big pots, I don't think I won more than half a stack in any one hand, but I'm talking about getting 8 or 10BB's when an aggro player limps pre-flop and you hit a K with your K2 in the BB or getting 3 bets out of TT against a tag BVB. I wound up winning 3 and a half buy ins, and I know it could have been better! I am still working on the whole 3 betting thing, both reacting to it and using it.

Small session

I played a short session last night of around 600 hands. I actually played pretty tight for me, running 12/10 with a 4% 3 bet. I never played a big pot, made a couple of small bluffs in spots against TAG's who C-bet to much, and overall had a solid session. I wound up winning a little over a buy in and was never in a bad spot. The only bad stat was my river call efficiency, which was 0. On the other hand, I only made 1 river call, and that was a stupid call. I don't mind the turn call, but the river call was just bad.

I am still looking for ways to increase my 3 bet percentage. I need to increase my resteal amounts, but with my table selection 3 betting for value is often bad. Still, I have doubled the amount I 3 bet over the last couple of months, so that's been good.

The one thing I did try last night was increasing my steal to 4x most of the time (I used 3x or even MR'd in a few situations where I wanted a call or to induce a 3 bet) and my success rate was almost 90%! First off, the increase win rate was awsome. But this also covers one of my weaknesses. Stealing 30% isn't all that great if you don't C-bet enough. And frankly, I don't, especially in steal situations. So, all of the sudden I am taking down the pot Pre-flop a lot more and avoiding one of my leaks. If this continues to work anywhere close to as well as it did last night, I will be a happy man!

Soul Crushed

Well, I finally got around to trying out the Tilt shallow tables last night. Holy Fish farm Batman! The tables were so rediculously soft. There wasn't a single reg with a 3 bet percent over 2 (well, outside of me that is) and I haven't seen tables this fishy since 5NL. I think the reason is the small number of tables (only 6 last night and 2 cap tables). There just aren't enough tables for regs to want to play them.

This should give you an example of how soft the tables were. Of my AA/KK hands, I ran into 3 sets heads up, two flopped flushes when I had a redraw, and 2 straights, I tilted off a buy in and a half at the end of my session, and even with all that (and much worse) I still finished the session up half a buy in!

Which brings me to the whine portion of the post. I have been trying to explain to my fiance just how bad I have been running over these last 50K hands. At this point, I would have to win 20 some odd coin flips IN A ROW just to get to even. Since my review with Mpethy I have been 4 buy ins below EV. Mind you, this is a trend for 18 months now, although I don't have the stats (nor do I want to see them) for the first 16 months. At this point I actually expect to run below EV just about every session. While I don't expect the villans to hit more than they should, I pretty much know that I will miss every draw when I get it in behind. And you know what? If I could be playing right now, I would. I still love the game of poker. I still think I can be a pro. The frustration is massive, but maybe I am just a masochist.

Table selection

I have been talking a lot about table selection lately. I believe it is one of the strong points of my game, and I believe after ABC poker and bank roll management, it is the most important skill. However, many micro players think you should look for the toughest compatition. After all, the point of playing in the Micro's is to learn and get better, not make money right?

I will agree that you will improve more playing against better players, and you make more money table selecting. So, by this line of reasoning, you should look for the toughest tables and get better! And if we were talking about 1 session, then that would be the end of the debate. But poker is a long term game. Many grinders play literally hundereds of thousands of hands a month, so a few hundered hands at a tough table is a fairly insignificant sample. But lets look at some examples.

Player A chooses to play the toughest tables, but is a small winner. Say 1bb/100, which I would think is a pretty damn good win rate if you are looking for the best players at your level.


Player B chooses the softest tables they can find. This player wins at a rate of 5bb/100 (this is my slansky bucks over the last 50K hands). They table select for 3 fish and good position, but still play with good players.

Over the first 50K hands player A improves more than player B. Using the 20 buy in rule for taking shots, player A is now 20% of the way to moving up. Player B is now taking shots. Suppose it takes Player B 50K hands to get a foot hold on the new level. At this point player A is 40% of the way to taking shots at the next level, while player B is now comfortable at the new level. Player B is still table selecting, but as the play level is better, is now learning at the same rate (and has been for the last 50K hands) as player A. Player B's win rate has been cut in half, so they are now winning at 2.5bb/100.

Player A keeps grinding it out, and over the next 100K hands is now 80% of the way to taking a shot at the next level. Plpayer B has won enough to take a shot at the next level. At this point Player B is now playing better competition and is learning faster.

And that is why it is important to table select.

Weekend update

Well, this was an interesting weekend. Let's start with the good news. I did my stat review from Mpethy this weekend. We got started late because I had computer problems. He was very understanding and professional. He even stayed on longer than 2 hours, and seemed content to continue even longer, but I had to cut it off for family issues. I was rather amused when the first thing he said seeing my stats is man you run like crap. Apparently I have run so bad over the last 40K hands that it makes it difficult to do a solid stat analysis. We did however go over my stats, and he was able to show me a couple of area's where I can increase my aggression (mine is fairly low for a winning player). The basic summary is that I have a pretty solid game for 25NL. I need to increase my 3 betting (especially from the BTN and BB), I need to flat with my big hands more, I need to bet more on the turn in certain spots, and I need to fold on the river more. He pointed out two spedific area's where I am not betting and 1 specific area where I am not folding enough, which was worth the cost of the session in and of itself. I am not really sure what I missed, but I am hoping to get another review done, if only to see what other stats he goes over for a leak finder.

One thing I learned from the leak finder is that the more you C-bet the better success you will have. I had always thought it would be the other way around, as I attack players who C-bet to much significantly more than I do against players who don't. I know I have a Low C-bet % (around 50%), but even then my success rate around 50% as well. Apparently this is standard. Increasing your C-bet frequency increases your chances of success! I have played 2 sessions since then, and in the first one my success rate was under 40%, but in the second it was over 60%. I certainly trust Mpethy's insights in this area more than my own, so I am going to continue to C-bet at a higher percentage and see how it goes.

Of course, after the session, I played a 2K hand session and broke even. I was $40 below EV and made two really crappy calls on the rive that cost me another buy in. Over all this weekend I broke even. Sounds bad, but I was 6 buy ins below EV. So, if I had run statistiaclly even, it would have been a really good weekend for me.

Which brings me to a sad point. I have commited to pulling out $300 a month from poker to help support the family. I have enough to cover 1 more month, and with rakeback I will probably be able to make it 2, but if I don't start running better, I am probably going to have to have to drop down to 10NL. I am hoping it doesn't come to that, but being prepaired for the possability is better than denying it.

Back on the horse

Well, when you get knocked down, you have to get back up. So, after taking a day off, I did just that. I also finally took the leap and did the entire session on tables I started. It was a very interesting experience. It has been a really long time since I have felt comfortable betting 3 streets with AJ on an AQx board in after a 4 way flop. Yeah, it was that fishy at times, and that on a Wensday! I can't wait to see what it is like on a Friday night!

I did notice toward the end of my session that tables get bad pretty quickly. I didn't shut it down, but on many of my tables I wound up with 2 or 3 good aggressive players on my left (something I avoid). My method of table selection, looking for 3 stacks between 40 and 80BB's with good position, doesn't really attract a lot of sharks, so it has been a while since I have had to be diligent about dropping and adding tables.

August in Flames

Well, my good month went down the drain on Monday. Hit a bad streak and wound up loosing 6 buy ins. I'm still hopeful about this month. I just need to stay on my game and griind it out. I am hopeing to do a sweat session with El Nino tomorrow if possible and then there is the Mpethy review this weekend. It's really good timing for me. Well, with both of those sooner is better no matter the circumstances, but from an ego point of view it is good timing. I was feeling really good after the end of last month and the beginning of this one, but having another tank session that could potentially ruin another month has me questioning my approach to the game. I am going to try out a session where I start all of my tables tonight. I have been meaning to do it at some point anyway, and Wensdays have typically been the bane of my existance anyway. Results to follow!

Smooth

Well, I took Wensday through Friday off from poker, then picked back up Saturday. The bad news is that my game is getting a little sloppy. I have been making some bad calls (made a REALLY bad call last night for $20, but that is only the worst amoung many) and missing some value bets trying to get in a check raise against the wrong type of villans. On the other hand, I have been doing REALLY well with my value betting. I have been mixing in a lot of "raptor" betting with some pot size betting and I have been sizing my bets to build pots of the size I want better than I ever have. Outside of just paying attention and knowing what pot size I want to create, what has really improved has been my getting out of the mindset that I must bet X amount of the pot to prevent them from having correct odds for a portion of their range. In thinking about their range as a whole and sizing my bets, I am finding myself getting a lot of 3 streets of value from hands AK/AQ and other random hands. I have actually had relatively tight fish pay 3 streets with J high. Now, I am not winning big pots here, but when you attempt to steal the blinds with 54s your not really looking for a big pot. However, getting 3BB pre-flop, 3 on the flop and turn, plus 4 on the river is a DAMN nice pot for bottom pair.

Another aspect of my game that has really improved is adjusting to smaller stack sizes. I have been usuing larger 3 bet sizes in many situations to set up a favorable SPR post flop. The down side is that I have probably taken down a few pots pre-flop where I was a pretty decent faovrite. But to me that is preferable to playing in an odd situation where any C-bet makes it gross to shut down. The plus side is that often I can just C-bet all in. Having an SPR tailored to the player really makes post flop easy. Dry flop? Shove and take your fold equtiy. Crush that flop? Check a street and see if you can induce. Hit the worst flop ever? Check fold. I don't mind loosing the extra 2 or 3 BB that I added on pre-flop for all the times it makes me more money on those rare situations that you have to give up.

Anyway, all of this is probably just a long way of saying it's a good month so far. I have been running over 6BB/100 for the last 5.5K hands. I am color coding a lot of players so table selection is much easier. At the beginning of the month I was just looking for 3 short stacks, and I really didn't care where they were. Now I am looking for 3 short stacks, no aggro on my left (although I will deal with this if their are enough fish) and I have good position on at least 2 fish. With the auto table selector at FT, it is so easy to get 10 good tables going now. I know and am thankful that most regs don't table select well, but once you have the basics of TAG play down, no single skill will help your win rate more than table selection. I understand the reason so many people think they want to play the best players at their level. Getting experience playing better players for cheaper. The flaw in the logic is the cheaper part though. I don't sit in games I don't feel I have a BIG edge in. Sometimes this means I have a good (or even better) player at the table with me. Sometimes they even have position. And these are the times that I improve against better players. But I am still sitting at a table where I have an adge ON THE FIELD! And yes, as I move up, I will still have to learn how to adapt to better players. But so what? When I am learning, I will be playing at a higher limit. BUT I AM NOT LOOSING MORE! I will still be sitting at a table where I feel I have and edge. So I will actually be making more while I learn how to play against better players. So, good table selection means you make more when you play, are able to move up faster, and you still get to practice against good players, but you do so in situations where you are still going to be profitable. Maybe I don't learn as much today, but moving up faster means learning faster in the long run, much more so than playing the best players at X limit.

Disaster avoided?

Well, last night was a near train wreck. I started out messing with table ninja, which on one hand was great as it allowed me to stack tables and pop them out (which is something I really want to be able to do if I am going to play more than 10 tables at a time). I started out OK once I fired up the tables. I was up half a buy in and should have been up more. Then my fiance said dinner was ready, and I said I had about half an hour left. Insert karmic kick in the crotch. Yeah, I so should have just quit right then and there and had a nice dinner and evening with my girl.

I proceed to drop 4 buy ins. Lost one with KK vs. AA. Lost another due to some FPS with AQ when I should have won a medium pot. Lost another one with a flopped full house to quads. The other buy in was lost due to mostly bad play and improper adjustment to the tables. At this point I was determined that I was not going to repeat last month. I could stand a small loosing session, but no way I was going to sit on a 4 buy in looser. I yoyo'd for a bit, gaining 2 buy ins, loosing them. Then, in the span of about 2 minutes I flop top set and take down a 400BB pot against a whale who had decided to limp call, check call, donk 3bet AA and at another table I turned a straight against QQ and got another stack. At this point I was exstatic, and really ready to just give up for the day. I really considered only being down 1 buy in to be a victory. As it turned out, over the next 20 minutes I wound up taking down a bunch of small and medium pots, and actually wound up winning 5BB's!

What really killed me last month (outside of variance) were two sessions where I dropped 4 and 5 buy ins. Outside of those two sessions it was a really good month. But with them it was a disappointment to me. The last thing I want is to wind up having one or two sessions ruining this month to, especially after such a good start.
It would have actually been a good session if I would have just listened to my Fiance though. Stupid me.

On the plus side, I was able to contact Mpethy (actually, his assistant) and am in the process of setting up a leak finder review. I am MASSIVELY pumped about this. I have never attempted to use HEM to plug my leaks, so learning how to do it from a pro is well worth the money. The down side is that I thought I had a few more hands than I actually do. I am going to have to find a way to get in 7K hands before the session. Motivation, right?

Loving August

Well, last night was a pretty ho hum session. By the time I got to poker at 10 I was tired, hungry, and really just wanted to get my points in, get some dinner and go to bed. My game really reflected it. I wasn't as aggressive in some spots and I didn't make a move all night. Just straight forward poker. Still, I continue my rungood for the month and finished up a buy in. I made some really good calls against mid stacks that I never would have considered when playing rush. Just felt good snapping people off. I must say, as much as I love the rush format, I think it is a huge disadvantage to those with decent tabel selection skills. As much as I had intended to stay familiar with Rush, I don't know if I will actually do it now. My win rate is just so much better at regular tables.

I did have one really fun hand last night. There were 2 limpers to me in the SB, and I had 87o. Not a hand I normally play OOP without initiative (and definately not a hand I iso with), but I was more than happy to complete with it and play against 2 fishies. The BB (also a fish) decides to raise it up to 3BB. Yeah, he got 3 callers. The flop? 773. So I check to see what happens, and the BB C-bets, 2 folds. I raise it up smallish. Get called. Turn is a 6. I decide to check again, because going pot pot won't get stacks in and I think checking will induce a bet from a LARGE portion of the villans range. Yup, I got the double check raise in! Sadly, the villan folded on the river for a half pot bet, but it was still one of the most amusing hands I have ever played.

Well, I am off for the day, but here's hoping I haven't hit the doomswitch!

Monthly wrap up and balance

Well, last month was about as close to a train wreck as it could have been while I still hit most of my goals. I moved up from 10NL rush to 25NL rush, then I hit my biggest downswing ever, 11. I was well on my way to recovering from that and felt confident that I had figured out a solid playing style for 25NL that was profitable for me when my HUD stopped working correctly, at the end or RUSH week no less. So I moved to the regular tables. That has been going really well from a theoretical stand point. Oddly, the better I played statistically, the worse I did financially. I wound up finishing the month $180 below EV, but even with that I still made my goals.

$75 for iron man
$50 for rush week
$80 in rakeback
$35 in tournament play
$65 in NL
and $12 in PLO

for a grand total of:
$305 - so I beat my goal by $5!

My goals for next month are to:
1) make $500 in total profit
2) Get Table ninja set up so I can start playing 16 tables instead of 10.
3) Get a stat review from Mpethy.

and 4) take a shot at 50NL with a plan of dropping down if I drop 2 buy ins and winning 625NL buy ins. This is actually unlikely to happen unless I hit my $500 goal early, but it's still on the list!

I had a very good start to this month yesterday, when I won 3 buy ins. It feels good to hit 15% of your monthly goal in one day!


Now...


BALANCE:

I have seen a lot of people at 2P2 and heard a lot of instructors at CR talking about balance and unexploitable play lately, and it is absolutely driving me nuts. Balance is a fine and wonderful thing against regs you are going to be playing on a regular basis and who are going to actually notice. As a matter of fact, in today's game I think it is something you have to do or you will become a reg fish target. That said, I am so damn sick of people talking about balance. Listen, if you are playing 25NL or below, please forget about balance. Even if you happen to be playing someone often enough that they are building reads on you, what are the odds that particular player is good enough to figure out what you are doing AND is able to proplerly exploit it? I mean really, there are so few player at that level who can exploit you in that manner, and if you are playing against them then you have bigger problems than balance (like table selection?).

Also, if you don't have history with someone, THEN THERE IS NO NEED FOR BALANCE! Seriously, if you have only played 100 hands, then no, you don't need to be bluffing in that spot to balance your range and you don't need to C-bet that A high dry board with AK. You could and should take the line that will have the highest expected value at that point. And maybe that means check folding instead of C-betting. Maybe that means you bluff catch instead of value bet. You simply don't have enough hands/history to make it worth the decreased win rate. If for some reason you start playing this person all the time AND they are able to adjust if you play unbalanced, then by all means start balancing your ranges. But you lose so much money if you are adjusting before that moment, and frankly it would be better to be unbalanced and be taken advantage of by the few regs who noticed than it is to lose out on the extra value that you get from being exploiting all the fish.

Rant over!

And random brag. I did a player report last night on players I had 500 hands or more. Of the 6 players I have that many hands on, only 1 was a winner. Table selection is one of the least appriciated skills!

On the down side, I have been starting tables recently, and I got owned playing HU for a bit last night. Lost half a buy in. Lesson learned (outside of HU play) is that when you start a table, make sure it's NL and not PL!